Tuesday, October 30, 2012

NBA Opening Night and 5 Story Lines Tonight

Finally! After all of the waiting it is here. It has seemed like last season was ages ago....

     Opening night is one of the most anticipated in any sport, mainly because we wait... and wait... and wait. We then begin to make up strange theories about potential sleepers, and just believe things that are really not rational. Especially in the NBA, where front runners have the biggest advantage over gutsy underdogs. Honestly, in the NBA, we are use to the fact that some teams even just play in coast mode during the regular season (cough... cough... Miami... cough... cough...) because they know they are going to just turn it on in the post season. It is okay though, it doesn't take that much away from the quality of the sport.
     The best part of this season is the fact we got the entire season back. Players had the chance to prepare in the off season with training camp and preseason, and we get a full 82 game schedule. The schedule isn't condensed either, so expect for some fresher legs from game to game. Newly acquired players have a better opportunity to mesh with their teams, so expect the big acquisition guys to be better off than players who were acquired a year ago. Quite frankly, this season is just that much more exciting because it will feel more like a full NBA season.

So I am excited, and here are some things you might want to look forward to tonight.

1) The NUMBER ONE thing to look forward to tonight, is the difference the Celtics have made with their off season moves. Jason Terry and Jeff Green headline a group of basically moderate moves the Celtics have made. Terry will look to fulfill Ray Allen's previous role in the Celtics offense; and while Terry is not quite the spot up shooter as Allen, Terry had a 1.18 Spot Up PPP versus Ray Allen having a 1.23 Spot Up PPP, he really isn't that far off. What I really like what Terry can bring to Boston is another guy who can be a pick and role ball handler. Terry uses this role in the offense 14.7% more of the time than Allen does. Also Terry was 50th in the NBA in this role, which isn't a bad mark. I think having a guy who can roll off the pick and take the jumpshot right away could be very good for Boston. Terry shot 45.4% out of this set and 44.4% from deep, while Allen shot only 27.4% and 20% from three. I think Terry, and also Allen for that matter, could be better fits with their new teams.
     As for Jeff Green, we have already seen what he brings to Boston as a combo forward coming off the bench. I think in an NBA world where Miami now sets the pace, Green could be more valuable this time around than his first stint with the team. Quite frankly, in the small ball sets the Heat run, Green is a perfect candidate to play the 4. He is of similar stature to Battier, or a more human version of LeBron's size. A Rondo, Terry/Bradley/Lee, Pierce, Green, and Garnett line-up can be Boston's best bet for small ball. Thus, Green may be most valuable if the time comes to play the Heat in the playoffs again. I mean, personally, I would much rather see Green on Battier or LeBron than Brandon Bass. As for other games, Green will make a Boston team much more deep, which they ran into issues with depth last year.
     Courtney Lee could be a sneaky good pick up for the Celtics too. At first he will try to be an Avery Bradley fill in, even though he ranks 280th in defensive PPP giving up 0.88. This isn't really a bad mark for a non big-man player, but when compared to Avery Bradley being 29th and giving up 0.72 PPP, there is a decent gap between the two. As for Lee on the offensive side of the floor, he is a decent spot up shooter (1.06 PPP, 65th) and a good cutter when he uses it (4.9% of offensive attacks, 1.45 PPP, 15th). Lee could be a very good bottom of the rotation guy and should be used most while Bradley is gone. As for the other additions (Sullinger, Darko, Melo, and Barbosa) you should expect some contribution from Sullinger, but otherwise it isn't going to be major contribution from the others. Also expect Sullinger to be less effective in a game like tonight, against the Heat, than a slower paced one.

2) Are the Lakers the new evil empire? It was a little bit irritating when I found out Nash was going to be a Laker. Nash seems like the typical good guy player without a championship, so it is hard to fault him, but at the same time I (like many people) don't like the Lakers. Then all of the sudden, boom, Dwight Howard is now a Laker. Many people are frustrated at the team, but also question their possible struggles right away. It will be interesting to see if the Lakers are immediately as successful as the Heat, and if they become as loathed as them too.

3) How much will Miami coast? Miami the last two years have coasted to the two seed in the East behind the Chicago Bulls. No one can really imagine a Rose-less Bulls team to be a legitimate contender for the one seed again. So how much are the Heat going to coast now? Also, how much can they really afford to coast? Personally, I want them to take the regular season as serious as possible, but I can see them losing games they shouldn't like always. Possibly, starting tonight against Boston.

4) Can the new look Dallas Mavericks be successful? It will be interesting to see this team mesh, but they are not healthy day one. Kaman is out, so it looks like Eddy Curry has the task of guarding Dwight Howard on opening night (good luck with that one). Dirk is also missing a considerable amount of time, so what is going to become of the Mavs. Along to Kaman, the Mavericks added Elton Brand, O.J. Mayo, Dahntay Jones, and Darren Collison (And I guess Eddy Curry... Wow...).  Jared Cunningham, Jae Crowder, and Bernard James were also added to the draft, and I guess they really like Crowder. It is hard to imagine any of these guys become immediate impact players though. So how good are the Mavs? Well they are probably a borderline playoff, that potentially might not make the playoffs. Can Dallas not become a lottery team? Well it might be on Mayo's shoulders, and well, once again good luck with that one...

5) Washington-Cleveland rivalry renewed. When it was the LeBron Cavaliers verses the Gilbert Arenas Wizards, there was a bit of a rivalry. That one was more one sided, but it can be reborn in the team's new eras. Both teams feature former number one pick Point Guard's Kyrie Irving and John Wall. Now both feature top 5 draft pick Shooting Guards in Bradley Beal (3rd) and Dion Waiters (4th). Throw in the fact that both teams want to fight for the 8th seed this year, and quite frankly I find it tonight's most intriguing game.

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