Week 5 is approaching this week and which means fantasy football is shaping up a little more from it's usually unpredictable beginning. The good news about that is you are more ready for knowing what to expect, the bad news is if you feel helpless because you are expecting defeat. So what are the keys going into this week that can win you a possibly key game. Let's get into it:
(All percentages are based on ESPN and this of course is all speculation, you have been warned)
If he is a free agent do yourself a favor and pick him up: Rashard Mendenhall is only owned in 63.7% of leagues, which is a high amount for someone who will typically be found is this column. The thing is that in every league he is not owned, you are going to want to be the smart guy in the room that picks him up. He is going to play this week, and he is going to be the lead back. The Steelers don't run nearly as much as they use to, but he is still a good call for at least 60 yards and a good shot at getting a TD. That's 12 points, and I am sure you have room on you roster for someone who has a good shot of getting 12.
Also another favor you can do yourself: The guy who would lead this column in normal circumstances is definitely Brian Hartline. Had I been doing this two weeks ago I would of told you to pick up Hartline, but I wasn't there, so I am telling you now. He is available in 73.3 percent of the leagues, and I bet that is cut into at least one fourth of that after this waiver period. Hartline will be the hot pickup if available, so if you are at the bottom of the priority list you may want to go in a different direction. If he's there though and you have a real shot of grabbing him, get him you are not going to regret it.
Another receiver that may be a good pick up is Andre Roberts, who has put up a couple solid weeks to start up the year. He is owned in 1.9 percent of leagues, and is also the number 8 receiver fantasy-wise on the season. He won't be ranked that high all year, but it is guaranteed everyone in your league has someone on their bench that is much worse than 8th best player at their position.
Buyer Beware: Look, this is not about to say don't pick him up, because if you can get him then go ahead. That being said, it is hard to see Brandon Bolden being a consistent fantasy producing player, even though he really looked like a stud on Sunday with 20 points. He is owned in only 0.3 percent, and there is sure to be one of the running back deprived players in the league who will pick Bolden up (and I am guaranteeing there is someone who will start him this week). Beware though as New England can get murky, Shane Vereen believers haven't seen any return on their investment, and there is as good of chance Bolden's name is barely brought up the rest of the year.
Because running backs are always in demand in 2012: The running back position use to be one of the most revered in fantasy football, and now it seems like there are players in every league throwing out someone who gets a score of 5 or less. There are some options that are safer than Bolden that can be picked up this week. Jackie Battle is owned in 9 percent of leagues and has averaged 14 points the last 3 weeks. There is a 5 point game in there, and that is most likely his production this week, but he is a pretty good guy to put on your bench if Matthews struggles. I personally am a big believer in Battle, he has played well every opportunity he has had. I personally think he is consistently better than some backs that start in this league. (Quick Edit: Battle has been named the starter this week over Ryan Matthews on Wednesday, hopefully you took the advice.)
Another solid pickup at running back is Shaun Draughn, right now Jamaal Charles fairly has a vice grip on the carries in Kansas City. Draughn though has been rising up Kansas City's depth chart, and may be the back up even if Hillis returns. So right now Draughn has some value as a back up (averaging 5.5 points a game), and he has a long term value if Charles gets hurt too. Bilal Powell will start one day for the Jets and is owned in only 5.4 percent of leagues, so even if he hasn't shown a whole lot of explosion he is still a solid pickup. Kendall Hunter, Ronnie Hillman, and Jacquizz Rodgers are backups that also should not be ignored.
Sell High, Buy Low: Most fantasy columns don't have a list of who to trade for and who to trade, so here it is going to be attempted to incorporate a list of these players. It has gotten to that point where you are better off making your team better through trading. So here is the list of people you might want to buy low if you believe in them (think Wes Welker 2 weeks ago) or might want to sell high before you feel their value will go down (Michael Bush before Forte returned), always try to get a fair deal though.
Buy Lows:
Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, Chris Johnson (if you believe), Ryan Matthews, Ryan Williams, Beanie Wells, Greg Jennings, Sidney Rice, Kenny Britt, and Antonio Gates
Sell Highs:
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Alfred Morris, Stevan Ridley, Chris Johnson (if you think that was his last hurrah), Miles Austin, Danny Amendola, Andrew Hawkins, Dennis Pitta, and Kyle Rudolph
One Last Note: Pro tip, if you have a bench player who collects dust every week and need some help not only now but in the future. Jahvid Best is only owned in 1.4 percent of leagues, and has better case to be a better option than any of the aforementioned running backs. He comes back in Week 7, that is only 2 weeks from now. Do it now and avoid the rush for Best.
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